This piece originally appeared in the Timmerman Report
We’re entering uncharted waters in the US government. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say there will be new regulations, new laws that we’ve never seen before. While I don’t pretend to understand the new administration in any way, I do expect there will be more chaos at the level of policy-making than we’ve seen in decades and one thing that chaos does is it increases the likelihood of extreme outcomes.
So here is one speculative policy idea:
I think we should trade the 12-year exclusivity period from biologics to small molecule drugs. Continue reading
This piece originally appeared in the Timmerman Report.
Remember the patent cliff and the general lack of new and innovative medicines in the industry pipeline? That was the big story of the past decade in biopharma. It caused a lot of searching for the next best way to organize R&D to improve productivity. One doesn’t hear that quite as often today. There are more innovative drugs both recently approved and moving forward through the pipelines of several biopharma.
The conversation these days has shifted toward drug pricing, and how the public is going to pay for some of these new, exciting drugs (the answer, in some cases, is maybe it can’t).
I don’t think the industry out of the woods yet. One of the main reasons drug prices have become such an issue is because even though there are new, innovative drugs, there aren’t enough of them. At the same time many of the drugs being approved are incrementally better but nevertheless being priced at a premium. And good reporting has made the public more aware of how many of our existing drugs are rising in price on a yearly basis. Especially in a time of little inflation, prices of most goods have not been going up at nearly the rate of pharmaceuticals.
Biopharma sits in a tough place. Analyses suggest the cost of developing a new drug has generally been doubling every nine years, which may be a by-product of some combination of the complexity of biology, our inability to predict which drugs will work, and the “better than the Beatles” problem. The question then is how to overcome these issues and increase the efficiency of developing new, innovative drugs. Without some kind of change, the industry is looking at a very difficult future in which price hikes run headlong into the wall of payers who finally say enough. Then what? Continue reading
All opinions are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of Novo Nordisk.
So much of what happens in the US seems to revolve around Texas. It’s a huge, rich, diverse state, with influence that stretches far beyond its boundaries. I mean, you rarely hear about how the politics of Rhode Island affect the nation. I’m just saying. Don’t hate me, people of Rhode Island! All eight of you! Which is still about six more people than read this blog…
That’s why, for example, when Texas experiences outbreaks of whooping cough and measles, it makes the news. The state is a bellwether for certain cultural and societal trends like the anti-vaccination movement. And it’s in this context that two recent developments in how businesses are interacting with Texas are fascinating.
Let’s talk textbooks and the death penalty.